It is expected that France, the largest producer and exporter of grain in Europe will have reserves in the amount of 3.0 million tonnes of soft wheat at the end of the 2016/17 season, not 2.75 million, as predicted last month.

Despite the worst in three decades, the harvest of wheat last summer, France can still finish the season with a large amount of inventory.

The latest forecast of reserves exceeded the average for the previous five seasons, the figure of 2.7 million tonnes and close to abundant stocks of last season to 3.3 million tonnes, which followed a record wheat crop in 2015.

Increase forecast of soft wheat stocks reflects the increase in expected imports from 700,000 tonnes last month, up to 800 000 and a reduction in forecast exports of soft wheat in the EU 6.0 million to 5.7 million tons.

These changes surpassed the third consecutive increase in monthly FranceAgriMer forecast to exports of soft wheat from France outside the EU, which is currently estimated at 5.0 million compared with the previous estimate of 4.9 million

Analysts point to the lag in French exports to other EU countries, partly due to the increasing flows of feed wheat from the Baltic States.

A much higher than usual imports of wheat in France is expected due to poor yield and low quality grain.

With regard to other grain, FranceAgriMer lowered the forecast stocks of barley at the end of 2016/17, with 1.9 million to 1.65 million tons, corn – from 2.0 million to 1.9 million tonnes.

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