This forecast was voiced at the conference when reporters in Barnaul, the General Director of the Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR) Dmitry Rylko.
"It is likely that the volume of exports of wheat taking into account the shadow of the exports to Kazakhstan, which this year also took place, up to half a million tons, it is 40 million tonnes, with a tremendous record.... In the past year, we have onexportal for the first time in the history of the 27 million tonnes [of wheat], it seemed the record, this year's wheat exports may reach 40 million tons for all cereals, according to our estimates, exports could reach 51 - 52 million tonnes," Rylko said.
At the end of March the Minister of agriculture of the Russian Federation Alexander Tkachev announced forecast for grain exports in 2017-2018 marketing year in the amount of 52-53 mln tonnes
Earlier, the agriculture Ministry predicted grain export in the volume of 45-47 million tonnes. However, on 16 March 2018 the Director of the Department of economy, investments and regulation of agricultural markets Ministry of agriculture Anatoly Kutsenko said that Russia's export potential is 50-52 million, While the projected volume of export of wheat will reach 36-37 million tonnes, an increase of the forecast, according to Kutsenko, due to the volume of carryover stocks of grain and the pace of exports.
IKAR estimated the price situation on the grain market
Rylko said the rise in grain prices - if a week ago, the export price was $208 per tonne of wheat, now $214-215. While on the domestic market, as pointed out by the General Director of IKAR, a wave of increasing prices and reached Western Siberia: some millers are buying raw material for 4-5 roubles per kg and 7.58 ruble per kg under condition of delivery.
"I think that before the end of the season, prices are unlikely to fall, rather, will gradually grow, because, probably, the ruble is unlikely to strengthen, it is difficult to predict. But at least we can see that is not the scarcity, but the growing value of grain in the European territory of Russia, since the flywheel exports loaded. We export a tremendous amount of grain, so the stocks at the end of the year will not be as huge as two months ago," said Rylko.
As previously reported, grain exports from Russia in 2016-2017 marketing year amounted to 35.5 million tonnes, including 27.1 million tonnes of wheat. The growth of grain exports due to record grain harvest in the amount of 134,1 million tonnes by the end of 2017. This gives Russia an opportunity to regain the status of the world's largest supplier of wheat. Crop of Russian grain in the current agricultural year - 110-115 million tonnes.
Translated by service "Yandex.Translation"