Excerpts from the review:
According to departmental monitoring of the Ministry of agriculture of Russia from may 28 to June 4, 2020 average prices for sunflower seeds was 21 904 RUB/t, sunflower oil — 57 488 RUB./t, rapeseed — 23 837 RUB./t. in comparison with the figures for the corresponding date last year, the average price of rapeseed increased by 9.1%, while soybeans fell by 4.9%. The cost of sunflower seeds, sunflower oil and sunflower meal increased respectively 17.0; 5.9 and 18.2 per cent.
Domestic prices for sunflower seeds and oil, according to the "Center Agrobaltika" will receive support from the low level of residues. By may 1, 2020, the stocks of sunflower seeds in the agricultural organizations of Russia (without small enterprises) decreased by 30.1% compared to the same period of 2019, and the stocks of other oilseeds — 22.5%. Also higher prices will contribute to growth of world prices for sunflower oil.
According to the FCS of Russia from may 25 to 31 exported 73,8 thousand t sunflower oil (15.4% more than the average level in four weeks). The main direction of export of sunflower oil was Turkey (52.3 thousand tons, or 70.9% of exports for the week). During the week it was exported to 33.6 thousand tons of sunflower meal (5.3% more than the average for the four weeks). The main directions of shipments — Turkey (almost 15.3 thousand tons, or 45,4%) and Latvia (nearly 10.3 thousand tons, or 30.6%). During the same period exported 23.6 thousand tons of soybean meal (95,8% more than the average level in four weeks), including in the Netherlands — almost 9,5 thousand tons, or 40.2%. During the week it was exported 10.2 thousand tons of flax seeds (almost three times more than the average level in four weeks), including in Belgium — nearly 3,6 thousand tons (35,1%), in China, almost 3.2 thousand tons (31.1 per cent).
Since the beginning of the season the largest volume of exports of oilseeds and their products from Russia fell on the sunflower oil is more of 2.46 million tonnes (+29,2% compared to last season).
The leader in relative and absolute growth of exports since the beginning of the season remain sunflower seeds: their supply was nearly 1.14 million t (in 5.9 times more than in the previous year). Exports of soybeans reached 813 thousand tons (+35,0%). Exports of flax seeds also increased significantly, reaching more than 473 thousand tons (+23.9 percent). Export shipments of sunflower meal has almost reached 1.58 million tons (+31,0%), rapeseed oil exceeded 539 thousand tons (+15,0%), soy oil, 431 thousand tons (+1,1%), soybean meal — amounted to nearly 413 thousand tons (+47,1%).
In the reporting period (29 may to 5 June) in the global market, according to the "Center Agrobaltika", recorded a noticeable increase in prices for vegetable oils. The reason for the increase in world prices was the strengthening of oil prices on the background of gradual recovery of industrial production in the world and reduce the supply of oil. Higher prices for vegetable oil and soybean meal contributes to the recovery of demand for oil as the global economy from the application of restrictive measures imposed on the background of the pandemic COVID-19.
A marked slowdown of the world economy (the IMF expects that in 2020, the global recession will amount to 3%) will continue to negatively affect prices of oilseeds in the coming months.
In the coming weeks, the main external factor that will have a negative impact on world trade, will remain pandemic COVID-19. Its impact on world trade of oilseeds will continue at least until the moment when the incidence starts to decline; thereafter, it is possible to expect restoration of normal trade regime.
Significant impact on market conditions can have an adverse agrometeorological conditions and a possible new round of trade war between China and the United States. Uncertainty in 2020 remain the global oil prices that affect the cost of vegetable oils (a significant portion is used for biodiesel production).
To see the full text of the review at: specagro.ru
Translated by service "Yandex.Translation"