Global wheat production is estimated at 761,5 million tons, 3.2 million tons more than in the previous month, and is now in line with last year's harvest exceeded the average. The increase in forecast this month is mainly due to the revision upwards of the forecast for wheat production in Australia (+5.5 million tonnes) due to more favorable crop prospects due to heavy rainfall in the previous period and favorable weather forecasts for the remainder of the season. It is expected that in combination with the increase in acreage under wheat this will lead to a more pronounced recovery of production in 2020, which is very different from the situation in the previous two years, when yields were down due to the drought. Forecasts of wheat production was also raised for India (+2.2 million tonnes), based on the latest official reports on the increase in acreage and higher yields, as well as for the Russian Federation, where favorable weather conditions have improved crop prospects, which ultimately led to higher production forecasts (+2.0 million tons). This increase more than compensated for the slowdown in wheat production in the European Union (EU) (-5,5 million tonnes) and the UK (to 1.5 million tons) against the background of deteriorating crop prospects. Forecast world production of coarse grains in the year 2020 also upgraded to 1 519 million tonnes, which is 5.7 million tonnes more than forecast in the previous month, and 5.0% (73,0 million) figure 2019. This growth forecast is mainly due to the increased production of barley in Australia, the EU and Turkey. The forecast of world maize production has also increased compared to the previous month, but not as significantly, reflecting modest growth in the EU, which passed after a few weeks of dry weather the rains have had a beneficial effect on crops, especially in the South of France and Northern Italy. Likewise, increased forecast corn production in Brazil, which is currently somewhat higher than last year and is a record in history. Under current FAO projections, global production of rice in 2020 that would be 509,2 million tons, which is 1.7% higher than in 2019, and 400 thousand tons above the June forecast. A minor revision of the forecast to improve primarily due to improved crops in South America, which is resulting from favorable weather conditions can reach the maximum historical level, partly offsetting last year's decrease in harvest.
Forecast global consumption of grain in the season 2020-2021 years were also upgraded to 2 735 million tons, 43 million tons (1.6 percent) above the level of the season of 2019-2020. The increase in the forecast of this month is associated mainly with the increase of the forecast of consumption of coarse grains by nearly 3.0 million tons due to growth in feed use and industrial use, compared with previous forecasts. A new forecast has reached a historic high in 1 471 million tons, and total use of coarse grains in the season 2020-2021 years will increase by 2.7% (38 million tonnes) compared to the level of season 2019– 2020 years, with almost 40% (14.4 million tonnes) projected annual increase will be in the United States and more than 20% (9.0 million tons) in China. It is expected that the increasing consumption of rice in the world food consumption of rice overall, in the season 2020– 2021 years will also reach a new high and will be 510,4 million tons, which is 1.6% more than in season 2019-2020. While global forecast of consumption of wheat in the season 2020-2021 years indicates a slight (0.4 percent) decrease compared to the level of season 2019– 2020 years, mainly due to the expected reduction in consumption of wheat for fodder purposes, and its substitution for other feed grains, as well as in connection with the reduction in industrial consumption.
Compared to the previous month, the current forecast of the FAO in relation to global grain stocks at the end of season 2021 was raised by 2 million tonnes to 929 million tons, a 52.3 million tons (6.0 percent) higher than the previous year. At this level the ratio of world stocks of grain and its consumption in the season 2020-2021 years will reach its highest level over the past twenty years and will amount to 33,0%, indicating favourable prospects for proposals in the new season. The increase in wheat supply due to the expected increased production in several countries demanded more time to review upwards the forecast for wheat stocks in the season 2020-2021 years, with the result that the forecast for the season 2020-2021 years amounted to nearly 284 million tonnes, which is about 9 million tons (3.2 percent) above the level at the beginning of the season, but still below the record level recorded in season 2017-2018. The largest increase compared to the previous year is expected in China, where stocks may reach a new record level of 138 million tonnes, nearly 11 million tonnes above the level at the beginning of the season and allows more than offset projected decreases in the EU and in the USA. According to forecasts, stocks of feed grain in the season 2020-2021 years will grow even more significantly than the wheat stocks by almost 45 million tons (10,8%), it is expected a significant increase in the stockpiles of both corn and barley. The increase in corn stocks will fall to the share of the United States, and the barley Australia and the EU. World rice inventories at the end of the season 2020-2021 years is projected at $ 182,2 million tons, which is 0.7% below the level at the beginning of the season and only differs slightly from previous forecasts. Much of the projected reduction in reserves will take place in China, where, however, a good harvest 2020 will allow you to keep enough inventory. In combination with the expected reduction of stocks in Bangladesh and Indonesia is, in all probability, will more than offset the third consecutive annual increase in inventory disposal of the main exporters of rice.
According to the latest forecast of FAO, the volume of global grain trading in the season 2020-2021 years will be 435,0 million tonnes, 9.0 million tonnes (2.1 percent) more than in season 2019-2020 and is a new record figure. It is expected that trade in coarse grains in the season 2020-2021 years (July/June) will grow by 2.4% in comparison with the season of 2019-2020 due to expected growth in import demand for sorghum from China. World trade in wheat in the season 2020-2021 years is projected at a record-high 178,7 million tons, 1.5 million tons (slightly less than 1%) more than in season 2019-2020, due to the expected increase in supply of exports, due, in particular, large-scale recovery of production in Australia and Canada, which more than offset the reduction in export supply from the EU and Ukraine. It is expected that the recovery of import demand in Africa will increase rice trade in calendar year 2021 to 47.6 million tonnes (three year maximum), which is 6% higher than in 2020.
Translated by service "Yandex.Translation"