According to "Analysis of the cheese market in Russia", prepared BusinesStat in 2018, in 2013-2017 production in the country increased by 36.7% from 345 thousand tons to 471 thousand tons, the Figure has grown annually, but the highest growth rate occurred in 2014 and 2015 and amounted to 11.4% and 17.9% against the previous levels respectively. Driver of growth in production was a temporary ban on the import of dairy products from EU countries, USA, Australia, Norway and Canada.

The food embargo was introduced in August 2014 In 2014 and 2015 there was a significant reduction in the supply of products from abroad by 25.8% and 35.2% relative to the previous years. Supplier countries, which have traditionally accounted for a significant share of Russian import of cheese – the Netherlands, Ukraine, Germany, Finland, etc. – have been compelled to stop deliveries. A dominant position among the countries-suppliers of occupied Belarus, which in 2017 accounted for 87,2% of the Russian import of cheese. Note that in 2017 the Belarusian suppliers cut deliveries to the Russian market by 10.5% relative to 2016 in connection with the become frequent cases of discrepancy supplied products to the requirements of Rosselkhoznadzor. As a result, the total import of cheese to Russia in 2017 reached a minimum over the five-year value and amounted to 206,4 thousand tons.

The decrease in the level of competition from foreign producers of cheese is a favorable factor for the development of domestic production. However, there are a number of constraints on faster growth of domestic output. First, in Russia for many years there has been a shortage of raw milk. Secondly, most of the industry require modernization, which is not enough money, especially given the fact that the necessary equipment is mainly imported. Thirdly, the low level of income of the population limits the growth of demand for cheese.

Given these factors, 2018-2022 gg we should expect relatively low growth rates of production of cheese in Russia – about 1.6-3.0 percent per year. According to the estimates of BusinesStat, in 2022 the value of the index will reach 523,5 thousand tons.

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