For the period from 1 to January 9, exported just 222 thousand tons of wheat, according to the message center. "This is a record low (export) for at least the last fifteen years, analysts say. In comparison, exports for the last week of December last year amounted to 1.2 million tons and for the whole December and 3.7 million t. the Export of wheat in January 2018 amounted to 2.5 million tons."

 

The reasons for the fall – the traditional new year's reduction in trading activity and an increase in domestic prices and explain Soverane, adding that in December the average rates on wheat 4th class (EXW European part of Russia) has appreciated by 600 rubles to RUB 11075/t or by about 5%. "To a large extent the growth of ruble prices was offset by the depreciation of the ruble in the second half of December. However, in January the rate returned to the level of the beginning of December", - stated in the message of the analytical center.

 

SovEcon experts believe that the operational customs data is understated due to the slow consideration of declarations on the background of the holidays. In the coming weeks, the pace of exports will grow, they say, and the total volume of export in January are preliminarily estimated at 1.6 million t In the case of the implementation of this assessment it will be the low volume from July 2017, when it was taken out of 1.4 million tonnes.

 

Export prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% at the end of last week rose by $2.5 compared to the end of last year to $238,5 (FOB deepwater ports), according to the center.

 

Yesterday, January 14, the Ministry of agriculture reported that in February will be held to discuss the prospects of exports in the current season with big traders. In July and December, according to the Ministry, grain exports totaled 28.8 million tonnes, wheat is 24.3 million tonnes. Total exports for the season is estimated at 42 million tonnes, the December forecast of grain exports, SovEcon is 43.8 mln t, wheat of 35.1 million tonnes.

 

"Exports are slowing, reflecting the deterioration in margin trading and supply reduction, declares in SovEcon. - The competitiveness of Russian wheat on the world market decreases. In these circumstances, the domestic market is difficult to return to stable growth, which I expect many owners of grain."