"Judging by weekly data from Rosstat, which is calculated for incomplete consumer basket of goods and services, the VAT increase affects the dynamics of prices quite restrained," - said in the review.

The MAYOR noted that the inflation rate for 1-14 January 2019 was 0.65% compared to 0,21% in the same period last year. According to the Ministry, inflation in Russia in 2018 to 4.3% from 2.5% in 2017, contributed to systemic factors - the weakening of the ruble and the growth of unsecured consumer lending.

Compared to the 2017 year increase in the pace of price growth in all major product categories. The greatest contribution to inflation last year has made the dynamics of food prices is a 1.7 percentage points, said the Ministry of economic development.

The acceleration of inflation in early 2019, has also influenced the decision about the two-step increase in utility tariffs by 1.7% from 1 January and 2.4% from 1 July. "At the same time a partial increase in tariffs since January 1 while maintaining the total index at the level of last year will be a disinflationary factor in the second half of 2019", - stated in the review. According to the forecast of Ministry of economic development, inflation by the end of 2019, shall be 4.3 percent.

The review also indicated that the current high growth rates of consumer lending are unstable and pose risks to the economic dynamics of Russia. "The current situation [with the growth of consumer] is a concern, including from the point of view of real incomes of the population, the dynamics of which have a negative impact rising interest payments. In addition, the observed growth rate of consumer lending (about 20% g/g) unstable and are the source of risks for the economic dynamics in the coming years", - noted in the review.

In the official macroeconomic forecast of Ministry of economic development expect that the inflation rate in 2018 will be a level of 3.4%. However, the fall of the Minister of economic development Maxim Oreshkin noted that due to the weak rouble, inflation could reach 3.8 to 3.9 percent. According to Rosstat, inflation for last year was 4.3%. Also, according to the forecast of Ministry of economic development, Russia's GDP growth in 2019 will slow to 1.3%, in 2020 the economy will accelerate to 2% in 2021 - up to 3.1% in 2022-2023 years - to 3.2 percent, and by 2024, to 3.3%.

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