It is expected that in 2019, the export of soybeans from Brazil will be reduced by 14-18% compared to the previous year due to the reduction of production and lower purchases by China.

According to the forecast of the Brazilian agricultural Agency Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab), a country that is one of the leading world exporters of soybeans, in 2019 exports 71.5 million tonnes, down 14.5% compared to 83.6 million in the previous year.

Conab attributed this reduction in Chinese imports of soybeans, a reduction in the projected crop to 115 million tonnes in 2018-19 marketing year (September-August) to 4 million tons below the level of 2017-18, and growth in domestic demand for biodiesel.

"In current scenario it is estimated that the export of soybeans in 2019 should vary depending on the prices for meal and oil in the international market. The trend is that the cost of these two goods more attractive domestically than for export. Nevertheless, the scenario can change depending on freight rates and the dollar against the real.

Another important factor influencing export prices is the possible resolution of the trade war between the United States and China," Conab said in its report.

"The record soybean exports in 2018, combined with a poor harvest in the 2018-19 will significantly reduce exports of Brazil next year", — stated in the report of the Ministry of agriculture of the USA, published in February 2019.

Given that processing for the local marketing year (February-January), according to the forecast, will remain about the level of 2017-18, as well as providing some necessary recovery of reserves, the projected decline in exports for the local marketing year to 14.0 million to 70.0 million tons, said the USDA.

International consultancy INTL FCStone predicts drop.

It is expected that soybean exports from Brazil will be reduced by 18.6% year-on-year to 68 million tons in 2019 from 83.6 million tonnes in 2018 in connection with dry weather.

"We had problems with the weather during the development of soybean crops this year, and we estimate that production will be of 112.2 million tons. Because of this and the very low initial stocks Brazil will export less this year," said FCStone.

Although forecasts for 2019 are weak, in January showed a strong growth of exports.

Brazilian exports of soybeans increased by 37% compared to the previous year to 2,154 million tons in January 2019, according to a report by the Brazilian Association of vegetable oils producers, published in February 2019.

"Brazilian soybean exports began the year 2019 more intensely due to an early harvest which began in December 2018, after an early landing some manufacturers who used seeds of the earlier cycle. Added to this is the use of reserves from 2017-2018 (beginning stocks) exports January 2019, which obviously increased the volume of exports," according to Conab.