Excerpts from the review:
According to departmental monitoring of the Ministry of agriculture of Russia, average prices for sunflower seeds and soybeans decreased by 0.7 and 0.2 percent, respectively. Sunflower oil, sunflower meal and rapeseed prices rose by 0.1; 1.9 and 0.2 percent, respectively. Thus, according to the "Center Agrobaltika", compared to figures for the same period last year, the average price of rapeseed increased by 10.9%, and soybeans rose 1.7%. The cost of sunflower seeds, sunflower oil and sunflower meal increased respectively by 16.2; 10.5 and 19.2 per cent.
Sunflower oil in the Central Federal district for the week fell to 58 087 RUB/t (-0,9%). The cheapest in Russia sunflower oil in the North Caucasus district (44 970 RUB/t).
Domestic prices for sunflower seeds and oil in June and July will receive support from the low level of stocks of sunflower, which fell to a five-year low, and sunflower oil, are on a four-year low. Also, the positive price dynamics will contribute to the growth of world prices for sunflower oil.
Downward pressure on prices, according to the "Center Agrobaltika", will have reduced the competitiveness of Russian sunflower oil due to the strengthening of the ruble and the increase of prices for sunflower oil. To offset the higher cost of sunflower called introduced from April 12 to June 30 ban on export of this crop outside the EEU.
According to preliminary data Federal customs service of Russia, from 7 to 14 June exported 44.7 thousand tons of sunflower oil (29.7% less than the average level in four weeks).
The main directions of sunflower oil exports were China (16.4 thousand tons, or 36.7 per cent of exports for the week) and Turkey (12,1 thousand tons or 27,0%). During the week it was exported 30.4 thousand tons of sunflower meal (1.3% less than the average level in four weeks).
The main directions of shipments Latvia (almost 6.2 thousand tons, or 20.4 per cent), Turkey (almost 5,5 thousand tons, or 18.0 percent) and Denmark (almost 5.3 million tonnes, or 17.3%). During the same period exported 23,8 thousand tons of soybean meal (29.7% more than the average level in four weeks), including in the Netherlands — almost 11.3 thousand tonnes, or 47.4 per cent. During the week it was exported 39,5 tonnes of soy oil (almost 3.6 times more than the average level in four weeks), including in China — 37.1 thousand tons or 93.9 per cent.
Since the beginning of the season the largest volume of exports of oilseeds and their products from Russia fell on the sunflower oil — more than 2.8 million tons (+37,6% compared to last season).
The leader in relative and absolute growth of exports since the beginning of the season remain sunflower seeds: their delivery was more than 1.22 million tons (4.2 times more than in the previous year). Exports of soybeans exceeded $ 947 thousand tons (+47.7 per cent). Exports of flax seeds also increased significantly, reaching nearly 485 thousand tons (+24.9 per cent).
Export shipments of sunflower meal reached nearly 1.68 million tons (+27,4%), rapeseed oil exceeded 554 thousand tons (+13.1 per cent), soybean oil and 520 thousand tons (+15,9%), soybean meal — made more than 449 thousand tons (+43.2 per cent).
According to Rosstat, the production of sunflower oil in may reached a historical high this month, amounting to 551 thousand tons (+20,8% compared to last year). Record was also, shipments of oil companies — more than 304 thousand tons (+17.6 percent). As a result, by June 1, the stocks of sunflower oil at the enterprises fell to a four-year low and amounted to 255 thousand tons (-36,4%).
In General, during September — may 2019/20 grain year produced more than 4,73 million tonnes of sunflower oil (+24,7% compared to the same period of the previous season). The production of crude soybean oil in may fell to the level of April by 3.8%, but exceeded the previous year's level by 16.3% and amounted to 70.3 thousand tons In General for the September — may there were over 574 thousand tonnes of soy oil (-2,6% compared to the figure for the same period last season).
Production of unrefined rapeseed oil in may also declined to the level of April (-9.9%) and exceeded the level of last year (+6.2 per cent), amounting to 39.9 thousand tons as a whole in September — may it was made nearly 453 thousand tons of rapeseed oil (+8,6% compared to last season).
Production and shipment of meal and cake fell to the level of April and remained significantly above last year's level. In may it was produced 868 million tonnes of oilseed meals and presscakes (-0,8% compared to April and +12,7% compared to last year). In General, during September — may were released almost of 7.68 million tons of meal and cake (+11,7% compared to last season).
According to the "Center Agrobaltika", in the reporting period (from 12 to 19 June) on the world market has kept the trend of increasing prices for vegetable oils. The reason for the increase in world prices was the strengthening of oil prices on the background of gradual recovery of industrial production in the world and reduce the supply of oil.
Higher prices for vegetable oils is promoted by restoration of demand for oil as the global economy from the application of restrictive measures imposed on the background of the pandemic COVID-19. In addition, during the reporting period, the dollar rose against a basket of currencies, which is also putting downward pressure on prices. The most significantly increased prices for canadian rapeseed oil (+5.7 percent) and Malaysian palm oil (+5,0%); soybean oil rose in Argentina (+4,6%), USA (+3.9 percent) and Brazil (+3.2 per cent). The price of Ukrainian sunflower oil on the background of reduction of stocks of sunflower increased by 1.6% to five-month high of 781 USD. USA/T.
Upward pressure on the price of soybeans has increased purchases by China to build reserves against the background of another exacerbation of relations with the United States. In the reporting period, the soybean prices in the United States and Argentina increased, respectively, 1.7 and 1.1%, while in the USA, the price of soybeans reached nearly a five-month high. Lower prices in Brazil to 0.3% was caused by the weakening of the real against the dollar by 5.6%. Soybean meal in Brazil and Argentina fell respectively by 2.1% and 1.2%.
A marked slowdown of the world economy (the IMF expects that in 2020, the global recession will be 4.9%) will continue to negatively affect prices of oilseeds in the coming months.
Significant impact on market conditions, according to the "Center Agrobaltika" may have an adverse agrometeorological conditions and a possible new round of trade war between China and the United States.
Uncertainty in 2020 remain the global oil prices that affect the cost of vegetable oils (a significant portion is used for biodiesel production).
To see the full text of the review at: specagro.ru
Translated by service "Yandex.Translation"