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Pandemic COVID-19 as the main regulator of the market of agricultural production and consumption
Growing uncertainty in connection with COVID-19 overshadows the medium-term agricultural forecasts
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According to the Agricultural OECD-FAO for the years 2020-2029, the pandemic will evolve in the next few years in reducing demand and could further undermine food security.

The global pandemic COVID-19 creates unprecedented uncertainty in the global food supply chain and potentially will lead to difficulties in the labour market, in the industry that produces inputs for agricultural production, food processing, transport and logistics, as well as cause shifts in the demand for food and food services.

In the short term economic and social consequences of the pandemic violate the generally positive medium-term prospects in agricultural production and food consumption in the world.

Governments face difficulties in formulating a balanced policy that would take into account pressing needs such as shortage of labor, and would create conditions that enable the agricultural sector to recover according to the principle "better than before". This is stated in a new report submitted to OECD Secretary General angel gurría and Director-General of the Food and agriculture organization of the UN (FAO) qu Dunham.

A joint report "Agricultural Outlook OECD-FAO for the years 2020-2029" comes to the conclusion that in the next ten years, growth in supply will surpass the rate of growth of demand, resulting in prices for most commodities in real terms will remain at the current level or reduced.

Fluctuations in the drivers of supply and demand can lead to strong dispersion of prices within this overall trajectory. At the same time caused by COVID-19 the decline in disposable income in countries and households with low income should in the first years of the forecast to cause a decline in demand and further affect food security.

The main driver of demand is the growing world population, while the consumption patterns and projected trends vary from country to country in accordance with the level of income and development.

It is projected that by 2029, the average availability of food per capita will reach approximately 3 000 kcal and 85 g protein per day. Due to the ongoing global shift in diet towards a higher level of consumption of animal products, fats and other products share of food products in the grocery basket needs to 2029 will be reduced for all population groups by income.

In particular, consumers in countries with middle and low income will have their additional income to send to change the diet to favor production of higher value instead of staple foods. At the same time, in countries with high income, the concern about the state of the environment and health care must support care of the animal protein to alternative protein sources.

An increasing role for food security will play an open and transparent international markets, especially in the case of countries where a significant proportion of total consumption of calories and protein have to import.

"A properly functioning and predictable international trading system will help to achieve global food security and will allow the flourishing producers in the exporting countries, - said Gurria. - Experience shows that trade restrictions are not a recipe for food security."

FAO Director-General qu Dunywa said, "We need a more deliberate policy, growth, innovation, increased investment and greater inclusion to build a dynamic, productive and resilient agricultural and food sectors."

About 85 per cent of global output growth in agriculture in the next ten years will be obtained by increasing yields due to a higher consumption of factors of production, investments in manufacturing technology and improvements in methods of agriculture.

Multiple harvests per year will give another 10 percent growth in production volumes in agriculture, and only 5 percent will be for expansion of arable land.

By 2024, aquaculture will overtake fisheries as the most important source of fish in the world.

The global volume of livestock production will grow by 14 percent, overtaking the growth rate of the projected increase in livestock.

Feed consumption will grow along with the growth of aquaculture production, animal husbandry, and improvements in feed efficiency will be counterbalanced by an increase in the intensity of feed intake due to the reduction of personal plots.

The report underlines the continued need for investment in building productive, resilient and sustainable food systems in the face of uncertainty.

In addition COVID-19 to current challenges include the invasion of locusts in East Africa and Asia, the continuing spread of African swine fever, increased frequency of extreme climate events and trade contradictions between the leading trading powers.

Furthermore, the food system will have to adapt to changing diets and consumer preferences and enable digital innovation in the agro-food supply chains. To increase the resilience of food systems to numerous major challenges will continue to be innovation.

Assuming that the current policies and technologies, emissions of greenhouse gases in agriculture will grow by 0.5 percent per year, indicating a reduction of carbon intensity of agriculture. The share of livestock will have 80 percent of this global growth. However, without additional efforts this slowdown will not achieve what can and must transform agriculture to meet the targets of the Paris agreement to combat climate change.



Translated by service "Yandex.Translation"
Источники: АгроXXI
Monday, 10 August 2020
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