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Wednesday, 21 September 2016

World market of oilseeds: soybeans decreases again

The nearest futures November for soybeans for the week decreased by 5.24 USD to 354,94 USD. Export sales the week though was in line with market expectations from 900 thousand tons to 1.2 million tons, amounting to 1,019 million tons, but still was much lower than the results a week earlier (1.78 mln tonnes). For U.S. producers of soybeans China's decision to procure oilseeds in smaller quantities raises a lot of concerns. Pessimism the stock exchange has added a report in which the USDA forecasts the soybean crop was increased. Experts note that it is possible to improve forecasts in the future

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Development weekly oilseeds:exchanges oilseeds:world

THE WORLD MARKET FOR OILSEEDS AND PRODUCTS OF THEIR PROCESSING

Situation on the world markets of oilseeds and products of their processing with 12.09.2016 for 16.09.2016

The world soybean market. The nearest futures November for soybeans for the week decreased by 5.24 USD to 354,94 USD. Export sales the week though was in line with market expectations from 900 thousand tons to 1.2 million tons, amounting to 1,019 million tons, but still was much lower than the results a week earlier (1.78 mln tonnes). For U.S. producers of soybeans China's decision to procure oilseeds in smaller quantities raises a lot of concerns. Pessimism the stock exchange has added a report in which the USDA forecasts the soybean crop was increased. Experts note that it is possible to improve forecasts in the future. In these conditions, all attention is focused on the effective demand for soybeans in the world.

In the future, the soybean market may turn on the lack of supply of soybeans from South America. The reduced demand from China is possible, but it is unlikely to be sharp. The reduction in the area under soybean in South America (Brazil and Argentina) may make major adjustments in the future in price and support prices. From September 15 the farmers of Brazil planned to begin planting soybeans in 2016/17 MG, but dry weather and soil moisture deficits prevailing in the state of Mato Grosso in the Central part of the country may lead to the death of crops in the future.

Possible "bottom" of the market is not yet reached and quite possibly on the news about the high yields the price will go down. However, the support of the soy may have a weather factor (rains in the corn belt), it will slightly slow down the progress of harvesting, and will also affect its quality. In the absence of significant factors, the exchange may take this reason for short-term growth.

Rape in the reporting week declined. The nearest canola futures fell for the week by 9.34 USD to 415,53 USD.

On the Malaysian stock exchange in Kuala Lumpur the nearest futures contract for palm oil for the reporting week fell sharply from USD to 711,75 655,75 USD.

The main factors putting pressure on the oil market – low rate of export of oil from Malaysia, the General decline of quotations in the market of soybeans and soybean oil, as well as the seasonal factor (in this time of the year, oil production as much as possible, which puts pressure on the market).

Export prices (FOB) for oilseeds

The export price of soybeans Argentine soybeans rose slightly (+1,0 346,0 USD to USD). In turn, the American soybean decreased sharply (-6,0 389,0 USD to USD). The gap between American and Argentinean soybeans for the current week has increased significantly.