Farmers in the East of Australia, might have to sow wheat in dry land since the much-needed rains delaying the ongoing climate model El niño, threatening production in one of the largest countries in wheat production and fourth world exporter.

Last month wheat production on the East coast, as expected, had to rally in the season 2016/17 after two years of dry conditions and the impact of El niño, which weakens and projected to disappear by June.

But the impact of El Nino, which brings dry conditions to many regions of the Pacific ocean, lasts longer than expected and some farmers desperately need the rain.

Conditions in the "grain belt" on the East coast is quite dry, said farmers growing wheat in Caragabal, 400 kilometers West of Sydney. If by the end of April the rain falls, many farmers will be very concerned.

Adverse start of season 2016/17 on the East coast may reduce wheat production in Australia, which the government forecasts at the level of 24.5 million tons. It can support the reference world prices for grain, which fell to five-year lows on fears of excess.

Hope for the harvest-2016/17 Australia has been supported by heavy rains in January in the Eastern States of New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria. But most of the region in March received less than half the rainfall.

Adverse conditions persist, the Bureau of Meteorology of Australia this week predicted that the previously expected a break in the dry weather may now not come until may, and some farmers have to make a decision to sow in dry ground before the "window" for sowing wheat will close at the end of April.

This Northern threat, because the upper soil layer to break down faster, reducing yield, said analysts said.

Things can go wrong, if you sow in dry soil without rain or in windy weather, said agricultural economists National Australia Bank.

But in other regions of the country farmers have reason for optimism. Western Australia, the largest in the country, the region of wheat production, has received 200% of precipitation in March, to prepare the soil for planting.

Source: Thomson Reuters