US Department of agriculture (USDA) in September increased the total grain harvest forecast in Russia from 5.3 million tons to 125,3 million, of which 81 million tons of wheat. The USDA does not consider data about the Crimea and does not include in computations, legumes (peas, lentils, chickpea) and some cereals like buckwheat in contrast to the Russian statisticians.

The Russian agriculture Ministry, according to his representative, maintains a conservative forecast of 110 million tonnes of grain in net weight. This assessment remains unchanged almost since the beginning of the 2017/18 crop year (runs from July to June). As explained by the Minister of agriculture of Russia Alexander Tkachev RBC, he doesn't want to give unrealistic predictions: in the country by 20-30% not cleaned the grain, ahead of a cold autumn rain, so everything is very controversial.

On 13 September, the country from 70.9% of the total acreage already produced 108.2 million tons of grain in originally credited weight, according to the operative data of the Ministry of agriculture is 102.8 million tons in net weight. Last year, Russia gathered a record of 120.7 million tons of grain.

The leading Russian branch Agency long ago raised its forecast for the grain harvest. The latest assessment of the "SovEcon" – 133 million tonnes of grain, of which 81.1 per million tons of wheat, "Prozerno" 132.2 million and 80.3 million tons respectively; the Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR) is 131.5–134 million and 81 to 84 million tonnes.

The General Director of Ikar Dmitry Rylko considers the situation complex: in the regions of Russia the price of wheat had fallen below export parity. That is, if the black sea ports of 1 ton of grain costs about 10 000 rubles. with VAT, then, for example, in Orenburg, at the export parity price should be about 7,000 rubles, but in fact – RUB 6000 and below.

The Director of "Prozerno" Vladimir Petrichenko believes that the state should support the manufacturers by any means and as soon as possible. The Ministry of agriculture will decide how to stabilize falling prices for grain at the beginning of October, promised Tkachev at the government hour in the state Duma on Wednesday. TASS reports his words that will be used all the tools: apart from the purchasing intervention has an agreement with Russian Railways to reset the railway tariffs to boost exports from remote regions of the Central Federal district, the Volga region and Siberia. It will be about 3 billion rubles.

Rylko believes that the launch and testing of stimulation of export of grain from remote regions will take several months. To solve the question with the intervention Fund had a couple of years ago when I had the opportunity to partially release the power. On July 31, 2017 in the Fund, according to the state agent, United grain company, 4 million tons of grain.

Realistic this season to export up to 44 million tonnes, this would normalise the situation on the domestic market, says Rylko.

The export forecast of the Ministry of agriculture of Russia – 40 million tons, the USDA is 43.1 million tons; on September 6, exported 7.8 million tonnes – 22% more than in 2016.

Photo: inruza.ru