At the end of trading of the present day creates the impression that gasoline from a neutral position, characteristic of the end of December, moving towards trend growth. The question arises what or what forces and arguments support the growing trend? The first thing we usually ask is netback.

Its level due to the tax maneuver jumped 2 500 - 3 000 R/t. The fact that January 1 was the reduced export duty rate for oil that already has the effect of reducing duties on petroleum products, amplified to the same reduction of fees actually gasoline. As a result, the spread between domestic prices and netback increased from 800 -1 200 R/t in December to 2 500 - 3 000 R/t in January.

However, this effect is described in detail in the newsletter on 8 Dec. Here it should be recalled that in November, oil companies have embarked on the maintenance of domestic prices at the level of netback and from this principle of the formation of market prices is unlikely to retreat.

The second important factor determining the upward trend is almost explosive growth of the price of crude oil to refineries, which refinery margins are already extremely low, warned producers in 2016, went into the negative zone. In fact recycling for the oil companies became in 2017 unprofitable.

Compare, in January the price of oil for processing at refineries amounted to 18 300 -18 500 vs 9 700 - 9 800 R/t a year earlier. More expensive almost twice. Of course, oil demand satisfaction, i.e., adequate growth of stock prices. Otherwise the economy does not add up.

Approximately the same situation and the same motives that shape price trends in the segment of diesel fuel. Jump netback up, his reasons are the same as gasoline, form the price growth potential for summer and off-season varieties to the level of 36 000 R/tn. In the segment of winter classes – also at 36 000 R/tn, but with the potential for a fall from this height of about 41 000 R/tn.

Completing the theme forecasts for other fuel types, here are the graphs of price ratios in the segments of aviation kerosene and fuel oil.